|
Jose Azparren
Co-Chair |
ISSUE #1: The issue of migration caused by natural disasters/climate change.
Background information:
“On March 14, 2019, Tropical Cyclone Idai struck the southeast coast of Mozambique. The U.N. The High Commissioner for Refugees reported that 1.85 million people needed assistance. 146,000 people were internally displaced, and Mozambique scrambled to house them in 155 temporary sites.” (Brookings, 2019). The global climate crisis is predicted to cause more of this type of “unexpected” natural disasters in the near future, which as a consequence will lead to problems such as: wide-reaching human migration as an effect of resource scarcity, extreme weather conditions and other factors. This is just one of the many examples of the recent controversial and attention-grabbing issue of the correlation and association between climatic distress, natural disasters and migration. Peoples from Central America to Sudan to the Mekong Delta, whose land has failed them as a result of the environment related changes scientists have predicted through the years, will have to decide between flight or death. (Brookings, 2019) Which as a consequence will result in a surge of global migration.
Throughout most of humanities history, people have inhabited territories with tapered temperatures and land that permits copious food production. Yet, as the planet becomes hotter, this is readily changing. According to a recent Proceedings of National Academy of Science journal study, it is possible for the planet in 50 years to see an exponential temperature increase, greater than in the last 6,000 years combined. It is estimated that by the year 2070 hot zones such as the Sahara, which now only cover 1 percent of our planet's land, could potentially cover a fifth of the overall land surface. (The New York Times, 2020) It's estimated that these harsh environmental scenarios will place one of every three people out of the usual climate niche humans have thrived on for the last thousands of years. Humans will face heat suffrage, starvation and political disarray. A 2017 study in Science Advances established that by 2100, the planet's temperature levels could elevate to an extent in which it would be deadly for humans to have exposure to the sun for a short period of time in areas such India and Easter China, stating “will result in death even for the fittest of humans” (The New York Times, 2019). Given these predictions, people have begun to take flight. In parts of Southeast Asia, where farming conditions have become unpredictable and complicated, the World Bank indicates eight million people who have fled to the Middle East, Europe and North America. In the African Sahel, migration to the coasts and cities has become popular among millions of rural people whose land has been facing drought and crop fiasco (The New York Times, 2019). If the fleeing from hot environmental conditions reaches the predicted estimate, it will amount to a geographic rearranging of our world populations.
A recent model released by the New York Times Magazine, ProPublica and Pulitzer Center that utilized climate and economic-growth data to survey a varying span of scenarios, suggests that even though migration will increase every year notwithstanding the climate, it will rise to a great extent as the climate changes. The model projects extreme scenarios; perhaps, amid the next 30 years, 30 million migrants will be heading to the U.S. border and 5% percent of the total is made up of climate driven migrants (Brookings, 2019). Acknowledging the fact that these figures exclude undocumented immigrants, these numbers could conceivably be twice as much.
Potential resolutions for the issue at hand include political responses to both climate change and migration that can lead to drastically different futures. If governments take moderate measures to decrease climate emissions, a reduced quantity of approximately 680,000 climate immigrants might relocate to the United States from Central America and Mexico, by 2050. If a course of action is not taken however, the estimated number of individuals resettling will rise to a million (The New York Times, 2019). In the same token, the international community can lessen pressures on fast-warming countries by permitting migrants to cross their borders, with flexible immigration policies and management.
To summarize, one of the climate change crisis’s byproducts is mass migration. Because of extreme weather conditions, increased temperatures, infertile soil (preventing food production) and other climate related complications, forced inhabitants of these areas to relocate.
Important Questions:
- Why should countries care if the crisis is not even going on in their own land?
- Should this be seen as a problem of individuals or of global importance?
- Should ethics be considered when thinking of the future of a whole group of people?
- Are refugee camps really effective?
Ideas for Resolutions:
Helpful Links:
- https://www.mercycorps.org/articles/worlds-5-biggest-refugee-crises
- https://www.care.org/emergencies/global-refugee-crisis
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaaYs6CTqo4
Works Cited
Lustgarten, Abrahm. “The Great Climate Migration Has Begun.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 23 July 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/23/magazine/climate-migration.html#:~:text=In%20the%20most%20extreme%20climate,of%20the%20next%2030%20years.&text=If%20governments%20take%20modest%20action,States%20between%20now%20and%202050.
Mbaye, Linguère Mously. “Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration.” IZA World of Labor, 30 Mar. 2017, https://wol.iza.org/articles/climate-change-natural-disasters-and-migration/long.
Podesta, John. “The Climate Crisis, Migration, and Refugees.” Brookings, Brookings, 1 July 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-climate-crisis-migration-and-refugees/.